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Navigating The Shifting Sands: Iran And Iraq Relations In 2024

Sherwood Wisoky

In the complex landscape of Middle Eastern geopolitics, the relationship between Iran and Iraq presents a compelling study of shifts and turns. Historically, the two nations have transitioned from an intense rivalry to a surprising collaboration, marked by periods of profound conflict and burgeoning cooperation. As we delve into 2024, understanding the nuances of Iran and Iraq relations becomes crucial for comprehending regional stability and the intricate web of alliances and rivalries that define the Middle East.

The harrowing experiences of the 1980s war are etched deeply in their collective memory, a stark reminder of past hostilities. However, the dawn of the new millennium unveiled a different trajectory, one increasingly characterized by shared interests, economic interdependence, and a delicate diplomatic dance. This article explores the current state of Iran and Iraq relations in 2024, examining the factors that shape their interactions, the challenges they face, and the potential pathways for their future.

Table of Contents

Historical Echoes and Evolving Dynamics

The relationship between Iran and Iraq is deeply rooted in a shared history, marked by both cultural ties and bitter conflict. The most prominent scar on their collective memory is the devastating Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, a brutal eight-year conflict that claimed millions of lives and left both nations ravaged. This period solidified an intense rivalry, fueled by territorial disputes, ideological differences, and regional hegemony. However, the post-Saddam Hussein era in Iraq, particularly after 2003, initiated a significant shift. With a Shia-majority government in Baghdad, Iraq found itself increasingly aligned, culturally and politically, with its eastern neighbor, Iran. This alignment has been a cornerstone of the evolving dynamics, transforming a relationship once defined by animosity into one of complex interdependence. The historical grievances have not vanished entirely, but they are now often overshadowed by pragmatic considerations of security, economy, and regional influence. The transition from intense rivalry to a surprising collaboration is a testament to the fluid nature of Middle Eastern geopolitics, where necessity and shared interests often dictate the course of international relations, even between former adversaries. This transformation sets the stage for understanding the current state of Iran and Iraq relations in 2024.

The 2023 Security Pact: A Foundation for Stability

A significant milestone in the evolving Iran and Iraq relations was the signing of a security pact in March 2023. This agreement underscored a mutual commitment to safeguarding their extensive borders and increasing cooperation in security and intelligence matters. The pact was seen as a crucial step towards de-escalating tensions and fostering a more stable environment along their shared frontier, which has historically been a flashpoint for various forms of conflict, from military incursions to smuggling and the movement of armed groups. By formalizing their commitment to border security, both nations aimed to address concerns about cross-border threats, including those posed by Kurdish separatist groups operating along the Iran-Iraq border. For Iran, the pact offered a mechanism to curb activities it perceives as destabilizing its western provinces. For Iraq, it represented a way to assert its sovereignty and prevent its territory from being used as a launching pad for attacks against its neighbors. The security pact serves as a tangible example of the collaborative turn in Iran and Iraq relations, indicating a move beyond mere coexistence towards active partnership in areas of mutual concern. This foundational agreement continues to influence the security dimension of their interactions in 2024.

Economic Interdependence: Gas and Beyond

Beyond security, economic ties form a critical pillar of Iran and Iraq relations. Iran is a vital energy supplier to Iraq, exporting millions of cubic metres of gas a day to Iraq to fuel its power plants. This energy lifeline is indispensable for Iraq, which faces chronic electricity shortages, especially during peak demand seasons. The reliance on Iranian gas highlights a significant aspect of their interdependence: Iraq's energy security is directly linked to its relationship with Iran. This economic bond creates a powerful incentive for both sides to maintain stable and cooperative relations, as any disruption could have severe consequences for Iraq's economy and social stability. Looking ahead, Iran and Iraq expect to sign numerous agreements across various sectors, signaling a desire to deepen their economic partnership further. These potential agreements could encompass trade, infrastructure development, and investment, diversifying their relationship beyond energy. Such economic integration, while beneficial, also introduces complexities, particularly given international sanctions on Iran. Iraq must navigate its energy needs and economic aspirations carefully, balancing its ties with Iran against its relationships with other global powers. The economic dimension remains a cornerstone of Iran and Iraq relations in 2024, shaping policy decisions and diplomatic engagements.

Iraq's Delicate Balancing Act: US, Iran, and Regional Stability

Iraq finds itself in a precarious position, attempting to maintain good relations with both Iran and the United States, two regional and global powers often at odds. This delicate balancing act is a defining feature of Iraq's foreign policy, especially in 2024.

Sudani's Strategic Diplomacy

Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani has consistently articulated Iraq's commitment to sustaining good relations with the US. This stance is critical for Iraq, as the US remains a significant partner in security, economic aid, and political support. At the same time, Sudani's government cannot afford to alienate Iran, given its profound influence within Iraq's political landscape and among various Iraqi political parties and armed groups. One of the most influential of the Iraqi political parties close to Iran, for instance, often voices perspectives that align with Tehran's interests. This dual imperative means Baghdad must carefully calibrate its foreign policy to avoid being drawn into the wider regional rivalries. Harith Hasan, a prominent analyst, has noted the complexities of this balancing act, emphasizing that Iraq's stability hinges on its ability to navigate these competing influences without compromising its sovereignty or national interests.

Preserving Ties with the West

A key challenge for Iraq is preserving its military ties with the West, particularly with Washington, while managing the influence of Iran-aligned militias within its borders. The presence and activities of these militias often complicate Iraq's relationship with the US, as they sometimes target US interests or personnel. To mitigate this, Washington should rely on allies less exposed to the militia threat and on multilateral frameworks other than the coalition, suggesting a shift towards more diversified engagement strategies. Furthermore, the Iraqi government has stressed that it would not allow its territory to be used as a staging ground for attacks against any of its neighbors, nor would it align itself exclusively with one regional power against another. This commitment reflects Iraq's broader strategy of non-alignment and its aspiration to be a bridge for regional dialogue rather than a battleground for proxy conflicts. The ongoing tension between these forces continues to shape the intricate web of Iran and Iraq relations in 2024.

Border Incidents and Diplomatic Resolutions

Despite efforts towards cooperation, historical grievances and territorial ambiguities occasionally resurface, leading to border incidents. A notable conflict occurred in December 2009, when Iraq accused Iran of seizing an oil well on the border. Such incidents, though often localized, highlight the persistent need for clear demarcation and effective communication channels between the two nations. These events serve as reminders that while the overarching narrative has shifted towards collaboration, underlying issues can still flare up. However, the diplomatic responses to such incidents have evolved. Rather than escalating into wider conflicts, these disputes are increasingly managed through diplomatic channels and bilateral discussions. The 2023 security pact, with its emphasis on border safeguarding and intelligence cooperation, is a direct response to the need for mechanisms to prevent and resolve such occurrences. The ability of both nations to manage these occasional flare-ups without derailing the broader positive trend in Iran and Iraq relations is a testament to their growing diplomatic maturity and shared understanding of the costs of conflict.

Iran's Diplomatic Overtures and Bilateral Depth

Iran has consistently emphasized the importance of its relationship with Iraq, viewing it as a strategic priority. This commitment was underscored by the comments of Iran’s new foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. In an interview on Monday with an Iraqi television channel, Al Forat, Araghchi stated that the Iranian president’s trip to Iraq showed “the depth of our relations” with Iraq. Such high-level visits and public statements are crucial for reinforcing the narrative of cooperation and mutual respect. They signal Iran's desire for a stable and strong Iraq, not just as a neighbor but as a key partner in regional security and economic development. The emphasis on "depth" suggests a relationship that transcends mere transactional exchanges, implying shared cultural, religious, and strategic interests. For Iran, a stable and friendly Iraq is vital for its western flank, providing strategic depth and a pathway for trade and influence. These diplomatic overtures are not merely symbolic; they are part of a concerted effort to solidify alliances and counter external pressures, particularly from the United States and its allies. The consistent messaging from Tehran about the strength of Iran and Iraq relations plays a significant role in shaping regional perceptions and expectations for 2024.

Regional Geopolitics: Spillover Effects on Bilateral Ties

The broader geopolitical landscape of the Middle East inevitably impacts Iran and Iraq relations. Events elsewhere in the region, particularly those involving Iran and its adversaries, can create ripple effects that Baghdad must navigate carefully.

The April 2024 Israel-Iran Tensions

A significant regional event that tested the waters of stability was the escalation between Israel and Iran in April 2024. After Israel killed a key Iranian leader in Damascus in April 2024, Iran lobbed over 300 munitions, including over 100 medium-range ballistic missiles, at Israel. This direct confrontation, unprecedented in its scale, sent shockwaves across the region. For Iraq, situated geographically between these two antagonists, the implications were immediate and severe. Iraqi airspace became a potential transit route for missiles, and the risk of collateral damage or becoming an unintended battleground loomed large. The incident highlighted Iraq's vulnerability to regional conflicts and the urgent need for its government to maintain a delicate balance with all parties. While Iraq did not directly participate, its internal stability and foreign policy choices were undoubtedly influenced by the heightened tensions, underscoring the fragility of the regional peace and its direct bearing on Iran and Iraq relations.

Broader Regional Implications

Beyond the immediate April 2024 incident, the ongoing conflicts and power struggles in the Middle East continue to shape the environment in which Iran and Iraq relations operate. For instance, the reference to a scenario where "in October, after Israel decimated Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran launched double the number of ballistic missiles" (referring to a potential future or hypothetical event discussed in future-dated publications like December 3, 2024, or April 7, 2025) illustrates the constant threat of regional escalation. Such hypothetical or potential future scenarios, even if not actualized, underscore the volatile nature of the region. Iraq's role as a potential mediator or a neutral ground for dialogue becomes increasingly important in such a climate. The ability of Iran and Iraq to maintain their cooperative trajectory will largely depend on their capacity to insulate their bilateral ties from the broader regional maelstroms, while simultaneously contributing to de-escalation efforts where possible.

The Path Forward: Challenges and Opportunities for 2024

As 2024 progresses, Iran and Iraq relations face both significant challenges and promising opportunities. The challenges primarily stem from the volatile regional security environment, the ongoing internal political complexities within Iraq, and the persistent influence of external powers. Iraq's efforts to balance its relationships with both Iran and the US will remain a tightrope walk, requiring astute diplomacy and a clear articulation of its national interests. The presence of armed groups loyal to various factions within Iraq continues to pose a challenge to Baghdad's full sovereignty and its ability to act as a unified, independent actor on the regional stage. However, opportunities for strengthening Iran and Iraq relations also abound. The mutual recognition of shared security concerns, as evidenced by the 2023 security pact, provides a solid foundation for continued cooperation. Economic interdependence, particularly in the energy sector, offers a powerful incentive for both nations to maintain stability and expand trade. The expressed desire from both sides to sign numerous agreements points towards a future of deeper collaboration across various sectors, from infrastructure to cultural exchange. Published on 11 Sep 2024, further discussions and agreements are expected to materialize, potentially solidifying the positive trajectory. Ultimately, the future of Iran and Iraq relations in 2024 will depend on the commitment of their leaderships to prioritize bilateral cooperation over regional rivalries, to resolve disputes through dialogue, and to foster an environment of mutual trust and respect.

The intricate dance between Tehran and Baghdad continues to be a pivotal element in the Middle East's geopolitical puzzle. The journey from bitter adversaries to cautious partners is a testament to the evolving realities of the region. As we look ahead, the trajectory of Iran and Iraq relations will undoubtedly shape the broader narrative of stability and cooperation in a part of the world desperately seeking peace.

What are your thoughts on the future of Iran and Iraq relations? Do you believe their cooperation will deepen, or will regional tensions pull them apart? Share your insights in the comments below, and don't forget to explore other articles on Middle Eastern affairs on our site for more in-depth analysis.

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