Iran's Enduring Alliance With Assad: Beyond Sectarianism

Cydney Hartmann 21 Jun 2025

The intricate web of Middle Eastern geopolitics often presents alliances that defy simple categorization. The long-standing support Iran offers to Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria is one such complex relationship, frequently misunderstood as solely driven by religious ties.

This article delves into the multifaceted reasons behind Iran's steadfast backing of Assad, exploring strategic imperatives, regional power dynamics, and the critical role Syria plays in Iran's broader foreign policy objectives, moving beyond the common misconception of a purely sectarian bond. Understanding why Iran supports Assad is crucial for comprehending the dynamics of the Syrian conflict and the wider regional landscape.

Unpacking the Alliance: More Than Meets the Eye
Syria as a Strategic Linchpin for Iran
- The Axis of Resistance and Hezbollah Connection
- Regional Power Projection and Deterrence
The Shifting Sands of Conflict: Iran's Intervention
Economic and Geopolitical Calculations
The Cost of Commitment: Domestic Scrutiny in Iran
The Evolving Dynamics: Challenges to Iran's Influence
- Shifting Syrian Allegiances and Autonomy
- External Pressures and Regional Realignment
The Human Cost and International Implications
The Future of the Alliance

Unpacking the Alliance: More Than Meets the Eye

For many observers, the alliance between Iran and the Assad government in Syria appears to be a natural fit, often attributed to a shared Shiite identity. However, a closer examination reveals a far more pragmatic and politically driven relationship. While the Assad government has enjoyed a political alliance with ruling clerics in Iran from the time of its establishment, this alliance is not driven by any common religious/sectarian causes. This distinction is crucial. The Ba'ath government in Syria, largely secular in its political orientation, does not participate in Iranian religious issues, and the Ayatollahs in Iran do not consider Assad a Shiite partner in the theological sense. Their bond is rooted in strategic convergence, mutual interests, and a shared perception of regional threats, rather than a deep sectarian affinity. This long-standing cooperation predates the current Syrian civil war, tracing back to the Iran-Iraq War when Syria, uniquely among Arab nations, sided with Iran against Saddam Hussein's Iraq. This historical alignment cemented a strategic partnership that has endured through decades of regional upheaval, evolving to meet new challenges but always retaining its core strategic rationale. Understanding this non-sectarian foundation is key to truly grasping why Iran supports Assad.

Syria as a Strategic Linchpin for Iran

At the heart of Iran's unwavering support for the Assad regime lies Syria's indispensable strategic value. For Tehran, Syria is not merely an ally but a critical geographical and political bridge, essential for projecting power, maintaining regional influence, and countering perceived adversaries. This strategic imperative far outweighs any religious considerations and is the primary driver behind why Iran supports Assad so fervently.

The Axis of Resistance and Hezbollah Connection

One of the most significant strategic reasons for Iran's commitment to Syria is its role as a vital conduit for the "Axis of Resistance." This informal alliance, spearheaded by Iran, includes Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and various Iraqi Shiite militias, all united by their opposition to Israeli and U.S. influence in the Middle East. Syria under Assad was part of the connection between the Iranians and Hezbollah, and it was key for the transfer of weapons and logistical support. Without a friendly regime in Damascus, Iran's ability to supply and support Hezbollah, its most potent non-state proxy, would be severely hampered. This supply line, stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon, is critical for Hezbollah's operational capabilities and, by extension, for Iran's deterrence strategy against Israel. Losing Syria would mean a significant blow to Iran's regional network, isolating Hezbollah and weakening Iran's overall strategic depth in the Levant. This vital link explains much of why Iran supports Assad.

Regional Power Projection and Deterrence

Beyond the direct link to Hezbollah, Syria provides Iran with a crucial forward operating base in the Arab world, allowing it to project power and influence across the region. A stable, allied Syria allows Iran to maintain a presence on Israel's northern border, creating a strategic threat that ties down Israeli resources and attention. This presence serves as a deterrent against potential Israeli or U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear program or other strategic assets. Furthermore, Syria offers Iran a platform to challenge Saudi Arabia's regional dominance and expand its own sphere of influence. In a region marked by intense geopolitical rivalries, control over Syria provides Iran with leverage and strategic depth that it would otherwise lack. The alternative – a hostile or fragmented Syria – would create a vacuum that could be filled by Sunni extremist groups or pro-Western forces, directly threatening Iran's national security interests. This long-term strategic vision is fundamental to why Iran supports Assad with such tenacity.

The Shifting Sands of Conflict: Iran's Intervention

When the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011, the strategic alliance between Iran and Syria was put to its ultimate test. Iran's intervention was not immediate or fully formed but evolved as the conflict escalated and the Assad regime faced existential threats. Iran’s support for Assad mirrors that of Russia, which helped to turn the tide of the war during 2016’s Battle for Aleppo between Syrian government forces and rebel fighters. Russia carried out airstrikes in Syria after rebels launched an offensive against the Syrian government, providing crucial air cover that complemented Iranian and Iran-backed ground forces. This coordinated effort, particularly evident in the siege of Aleppo, demonstrated the effectiveness of their combined military might. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) advisors, along with thousands of Iran-backed foreign fighters from Lebanon (Hezbollah), Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, played a pivotal role in bolstering the depleted Syrian Arab Army and reclaiming key territories. Their ground expertise and willingness to engage in direct combat proved invaluable in urban warfare scenarios. However, the dynamics of intervention are not static. More recently, when the rebel offensive commenced in late November, Iran found itself poorly positioned to mount an effective intervention to support Assad. Unlike in 2016, when Iranian ground forces complemented Russian air support in the siege of Aleppo, neither patron demonstrated the will or capability to launch a similar counteroffensive. This suggests evolving limitations or strategic recalculations for both Iran and Russia, perhaps due to internal pressures, resource constraints, or a shift in immediate priorities. The cost and sustainability of such interventions are always under review, even for steadfast allies like Iran, which continues to adapt its strategy to the changing battlefield and geopolitical landscape. This adaptability, even in the face of setbacks, underscores the deep-seated reasons why Iran supports Assad.

Economic and Geopolitical Calculations

Beyond the immediate military and strategic considerations, Iran's support for the Assad regime is also deeply intertwined with complex economic and geopolitical calculations. The reasons for their support of his government vary, ranging from trade and strategy to a fear of instability if Assad were to fall. Economically, a stable Syria under Assad offers Iran potential avenues for trade and reconstruction contracts in the post-conflict era, although the extent of these benefits has been limited by ongoing sanctions and Syria's devastated economy. Iran views Syria as a potential market for its goods and services, and a reliable partner for future energy deals, particularly given its own vast oil and gas reserves. Securing long-term economic ties with Syria could help Iran mitigate the impact of international sanctions and diversify its economic partnerships.

Geopolitically, the prospect of Assad's fall presents a terrifying scenario for Tehran. The collapse of the Syrian state could lead to prolonged chaos, the rise of hostile Sunni extremist groups like ISIS or Al-Qaeda affiliates, or the establishment of a pro-Western government. Any of these outcomes would severely undermine Iran's regional security, disrupt its "Axis of Resistance," and potentially bring hostile forces directly to its borders or to the borders of its key allies. The fear of instability if Assad were to fall is a powerful motivator for Iran, as it understands that state collapse often leads to uncontrolled security vacuums that can spill over into neighboring countries. Furthermore, maintaining Assad in power ensures that Syria remains outside the orbit of rival regional powers, particularly Saudi Arabia and Turkey, who have supported various opposition groups. This allows Iran to maintain a crucial strategic balance in the Levant, preventing its adversaries from gaining a decisive advantage. The intertwined nature of these economic and geopolitical interests provides further insight into why Iran supports Assad with such unwavering resolve.

The Cost of Commitment: Domestic Scrutiny in Iran

While Iran's strategic reasons for supporting Assad are clear from Tehran's perspective, the immense cost of this commitment has not gone unnoticed within Iran itself. The Syrian conflict has drained significant Iranian resources, both financial and human, leading to growing domestic criticism. The fall of Assad's regime, or even significant setbacks for it, has historically led to unusual domestic criticism of Iran's regional strategy among skeptics who demanded to know why Iran had invested so much in the axis of resistance instead of within their own country. These voices argue that the funds and lives expended in Syria could have been better utilized to address pressing domestic issues, such as economic hardship, unemployment, and infrastructure development. The public discourse often highlights the disparity between the government's foreign policy expenditures and the daily struggles faced by ordinary Iranians, especially under the weight of international sanctions. This internal debate reflects a growing weariness with foreign entanglements and a desire for the government to prioritize the welfare of its own citizens. The human toll, though often downplayed by official sources, is also a sensitive issue, with reports of Iranian military personnel and allied foreign fighters killed in Syria sparking public concern. Despite these criticisms, the Iranian leadership has largely maintained its commitment to Assad, viewing the strategic benefits as outweighing the domestic costs. However, the intensity of this internal scrutiny suggests that the sustainability of Iran's deep involvement in Syria is not without its challenges, and public opinion could, in the long run, influence the scope and nature of future interventions. This internal pushback adds another layer of complexity to understanding why Iran supports Assad, highlighting the difficult balance between national interests and domestic pressures.

The Evolving Dynamics: Challenges to Iran's Influence

Despite Iran's significant investment in the Assad regime's survival, its influence in Syria is not absolute and faces evolving challenges. The complex interplay of regional and international actors, coupled with Syria's own desire for sovereignty, means that Iran's position is constantly being tested. When the rebel offensive commenced in late November, Iran found itself poorly positioned to mount an effective intervention to support Assad, highlighting potential resource limitations or a shift in strategic focus. This suggests that Iran, again, is seeing its influence suffer a significant blow, particularly in areas where its ground forces cannot easily operate or where Russian airpower is not as readily available or decisive. As Ayham Kamel at Eurasia Group notes, the geopolitical landscape is fluid, and even strong alliances can face new pressures.

Shifting Syrian Allegiances and Autonomy

While Bashar al-Assad owes his survival largely to Iran and Russia, there are indications that Syria is increasingly asserting its own autonomy and balancing its relationships with its patrons. Reports, for instance, have emerged suggesting that as of January 2025, Syria bans Iranian citizens and goods from entering its territory, a move that, if implemented or sustained, would represent a significant point of friction and a potential blow to Iran's economic and demographic influence. Such actions, even if temporary or partial, signal a Syrian desire to prevent any single foreign power from dominating its affairs and to maintain a degree of independence. This could be driven by economic necessity, a desire to rebuild relations with other Arab states, or a response to international pressure. While Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, visited Damascus on Sunday to convey support for Mr. Assad, demonstrating continued diplomatic engagement, these reported developments suggest a more complex and potentially less subservient relationship than often perceived. Syria's willingness to diversify its foreign relations, even with its saviors, complicates Iran's long-term strategic objectives.

External Pressures and Regional Realignment

Iran's position in Syria is also subject to intense external pressures. Israeli airstrikes frequently target Iranian and Iran-backed military assets in Syria, aiming to degrade Iran's military infrastructure and prevent it from establishing a permanent presence near its borders. These strikes force Iran to constantly adapt its deployments and increase the cost of its presence. Furthermore, the broader regional realignment, including the Abraham Accords and ongoing diplomatic efforts between Arab states and Syria, could gradually reduce Syria's reliance on Iran. If Syria reintegrates into the Arab League and receives reconstruction aid from Gulf states, its need for Iranian economic and military assistance might diminish, potentially weakening Iran's leverage. The presence of other major powers like Russia and China, who are also Syrian President Bashar Assad's closest allies, further complicates Iran's exclusive influence. While they share the goal of supporting Assad, their individual strategic interests may not always align perfectly with Iran's, creating a dynamic of competition and cooperation. These multifaceted challenges mean that while Iran's commitment to Assad remains strong, the nature and extent of its influence are constantly being negotiated and tested in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment.

The Human Cost and International Implications

The protracted conflict in Syria, fueled significantly by external support for various factions, has exacted an unimaginable human cost. In an excerpt from "Bitter Rivals," it is explored how Iran’s support for the Assad regime in Syria has helped fuel one of the most brutal wars in modern times. This is not merely an academic observation; it represents the tragic reality for millions of Syrians. Iran's military and financial backing, alongside Russia's decisive airpower, enabled the Assad regime to withstand and ultimately push back against a widespread rebellion, but at a devastating price. The conflict has resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths, millions displaced both internally and as refugees, and the destruction of vast swathes of the country's infrastructure. Cities lie in ruins, economies are shattered, and a generation has grown up knowing nothing but war.

Internationally, Iran's role in Syria has profound implications. It has deepened sectarian divisions in the Middle East, with regional powers aligning along Sunni-Shiite lines, exacerbating existing tensions. The conflict has also become a proxy battleground for global powers, drawing in Russia, the United States, Turkey, and various European nations, each with their own interests and agendas. This internationalization of the conflict has made a peaceful resolution incredibly difficult to achieve. Furthermore, Iran's actions in Syria have contributed to its international isolation and intensified sanctions, as many Western nations and their allies view its support for Assad as a destabilizing force. The humanitarian catastrophe and the complex geopolitical fallout underscore the heavy price paid for the strategic objectives that drive why Iran supports Assad, making it a critical case study in the consequences of prolonged regional interventions.

The Future of the Alliance

The alliance between Iran and the Assad regime, though rooted in decades of shared strategic interests, faces an uncertain future shaped by evolving regional dynamics, economic pressures, and the shifting geopolitical landscape. Russia, China, and Iran are Syrian President Bashar Assad's closest allies, forming a crucial triumvirate that has largely ensured the regime's survival. However, the sustainability of Iran's deep involvement, particularly given its own domestic economic challenges and international isolation, remains a pertinent question. But does it have the resources to maintain its current level of commitment indefinitely? This is a key query that analysts often pose.

The Syrian conflict has largely shifted from a war of regime survival to one of stabilization and reconstruction, with various foreign powers vying for influence in the post-war order. Iran's long-term objectives in Syria likely include securing economic contracts, maintaining its military presence to deter adversaries, and ensuring the continued viability of the "Axis of Resistance." However, the growing assertiveness of the Syrian government itself, as well as the competing interests of Russia, could lead to a re-evaluation of Iran's role. Syria may seek to balance its relationships, preventing any single patron from exerting undue influence, especially as it looks to rebuild and potentially reintegrate into the broader Arab world. The reported developments, such as potential restrictions on Iranian citizens and goods, if they materialize, would indicate a more complex relationship than a simple patron-client dynamic. Ultimately, while the core strategic reasons why Iran supports Assad will likely endure, the nature, scope, and visibility of that support may evolve. Tehran will continue to prioritize a friendly Syria as a vital component of its regional security architecture, but it may have to adapt to new realities, including resource constraints, Syrian autonomy, and the persistent pressure from regional and international rivals. The future of this alliance will undoubtedly continue to shape the trajectory of the Middle East.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Iran's enduring support for Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria is a multifaceted phenomenon, driven primarily by strategic imperatives rather than sectarian affinity. From securing a vital land bridge to Hezbollah and projecting regional power against adversaries like Israel and the U.S., to preventing the collapse of a key Arab ally and countering the rise of hostile extremist groups, Iran's motivations are deeply rooted in its national security interests. While the alliance has come at a significant cost, both financially and in terms of human lives, leading to domestic scrutiny, Tehran has consistently viewed its commitment to Syria as indispensable for its broader regional strategy. The evolving dynamics of the conflict, coupled with external pressures and Syria's own desire for autonomy, present ongoing challenges to Iran's influence. Nevertheless, the fundamental reasons why Iran supports Assad remain powerful drivers, ensuring that Syria will continue to be a critical arena for Iran's geopolitical ambitions. Understanding this complex relationship is paramount for anyone seeking to grasp the intricate power plays and enduring conflicts that define the contemporary Middle East.

What are your thoughts on the future of this complex alliance? Share your insights in the comments below, and don't forget to explore our other articles on Middle Eastern geopolitics for more in-depth analysis!

Why you should start with why

Why Text Question · Free image on Pixabay

UTILITY COMPANIES MAKE MISTAKES - WHY? - Pacific Utility Auditing

RealTime Reports