What If Iraq Won The Iran-Iraq War: A Different Middle East?
The Iran-Iraq War, a brutal conflict launched by Saddam Hussein in 1980, reshaped the Middle East. While historically, the war concluded with a stalemate often described as "Iraq winning for nothing," what if the outcome had been decisively different? What if Iraq had truly won, achieving its strategic objectives and fundamentally altering the region's trajectory?
This alternative history delves into a hypothetical scenario where Saddam's ambitions were fully realized, exploring the profound geopolitical, economic, and social consequences that would ripple across the globe, from the Persian Gulf to global oil markets and beyond. It’s a thought experiment into a "possible history" that examines how a clear Iraqi victory could have prevented subsequent conflicts and reshaped the very fabric of the modern Middle East.
Table of Contents
- The Seeds of Conflict: Why Iraq Fought
- A Decisive Iraqi Victory: The Hypothetical Scenario
- The Collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran
- A Different Geopolitical Chessboard: No Gulf Wars?
- Regional Power Dynamics and Global Implications
- Economic Repercussions and Oil Markets
- Long-Term Stability vs. Unforeseen Consequences
- Reflecting on the "What If": Lessons from History
The Seeds of Conflict: Why Iraq Fought
The Iran-Iraq War, which commenced in September 1980, was a conflict born out of complex geopolitical ambitions and regional rivalries. At its core, the war was the result of Iraq attempting to take advantage of the turmoil of Iran’s revolution to expand its influence over disputed territories. Saddam Hussein, then the leader of Iraq, saw an opportunity in the nascent and disorganized Islamic Republic of Iran, led by Ayatollah Khomeini, to assert Iraqi dominance in the Persian Gulf and secure control over strategic waterways and oil-rich regions. Saddam launched a brutal war in 1980, aiming for a swift victory that would cement Iraq's position as the leading power in the Arab world and protect against the spread of revolutionary Shi'ite Islam.
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In our timeline, the war dragged on for eight grueling years, ending in a costly stalemate. As one perspective notes, "Iraq did win, but not much happened," with Khomeini supposedly ending it with a treaty, leading Iraq to declare a victory that felt hollow. Indeed, "Iraq won, but won for nothing," as both nations "lost several lives and infrastructures." The human cost was immense, and the economic devastation staggering, with neither side achieving their maximalist objectives. This historical outcome sets the stage for our exploration: what if Iraq had achieved a truly decisive victory, reshaping the region in its image?
A Decisive Iraqi Victory: The Hypothetical Scenario
For Iraq to have achieved a truly decisive victory in the Iran-Iraq War, a series of critical events would need to unfold differently from our historical record. The prevailing sentiment among analysts is that a complete Iraqi triumph, particularly one that involved significant territorial annexation, would have required an overwhelming early advantage. This isn't just about winning a few battles; it's about fundamentally breaking the will and capacity of the Iranian state to resist. Such a scenario demands a specific, high-impact sequence of events that would force Iran to capitulate and accept terms dictated by Baghdad.
The Path to Triumph: Air Superiority and Khuzestan
One of the most plausible paths to a decisive Iraqi victory would hinge on a crippling blow delivered early in the conflict. Let’s say, for instance, that Iraq managed to take out the entire Iranian air force during the beginning of the war. This immediate air superiority would have been a game-changer, neutralizing Iran's ability to defend its territory from above and support its ground troops effectively. With the skies clear, Iraqi forces could have advanced rapidly and decisively. The primary strategic target for Iraq was the oil-rich province of Khuzestan, also known as Arabistan, which had a significant Arab population and was geographically contiguous with Iraq. If Iraq managed to take the province of Khuzestan in 1982, a mere two years into the conflict, it would represent a monumental achievement.
The fall of Khuzestan, coupled with the decimation of its air force, would have left the infant Islamic Republic's government in a precarious position, likely forcing Iran to surrender. The result would be the signing of a "Treaty of Baghdad," a peace accord dictated on Iraqi terms. This treaty would likely include punitive clauses, such as 75 percent of Iran's oil revenue being given to Iraq, effectively turning Iran into an economic tributary. Furthermore, the annexation of Khuzestan/Arabistan into Iraq would be internationally recognized after the war, a critical element for long-term stability and legitimacy for Baghdad. This decisive victory in the Iran-Iraq War would not only secure Iraq's territorial ambitions but also fundamentally alter the economic and political landscape of the entire region, setting the stage for a dramatically different future.
The Collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran
The annexation of Khuzestan, particularly if internationally recognized, would be an unbearable blow for the nascent Islamic Republic of Iran. Such a profound territorial and economic loss would be too much for the infant Islamic Republic's government to withstand. This immense external pressure, combined with not yet properly repressed internal dissent, would inevitably lead to its collapse. The revolutionary fervor that brought Ayatollah Khomeini to power would likely dissipate under the weight of military defeat and national humiliation. The Islamist Iranian regime would be deposed, paving the way for a new political order. In this alternate timeline, a republic would take its place, moving away from theocratic rule towards a more secular or at least less ideologically rigid form of governance.
The United States' reaction to such a dramatic shift in Iran would be complex. While the US and its allies would likely welcome the demise of the anti-Western Islamist regime, they would also be wary of the instability that a sudden collapse could bring. Reagan and Bush probably wouldn’t go to war with Iran, as the primary threat (the Islamist regime) would be gone, but the US wouldn’t necessarily recognize the new regime immediately either. Their approach would likely be similar to the Maduro and Guaido situation in Venezuela today, where recognition is withheld or conditional, maintaining a cautious distance until the new republic demonstrates stability and a clear direction. This cautious approach would reflect a desire to avoid entanglement while still acknowledging the profound geopolitical shift brought about by Iraq's decisive victory in the Iran-Iraq War.
A Different Geopolitical Chessboard: No Gulf Wars?
One of the most significant ripple effects of a decisive Iraqi victory in the Iran-Iraq War would be the potential avoidance of subsequent major conflicts that defined the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The acquisition of Khuzestan and the economic concessions from Iran would fundamentally alter Saddam Hussein's strategic calculus, removing key motivations for the conflicts that followed in our timeline. This would create a dramatically different geopolitical chessboard, where the major wars that shaped the Middle East simply wouldn't occur.
Saddam's Strategic Shift: No Invasion of Kuwait
In our history, Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 was largely driven by Iraq's immense war debt from the Iran-Iraq War and his desire to control Kuwaiti oil reserves, which he viewed as rightfully Iraqi. However, in this alternative scenario, the economic landscape for Iraq would be vastly different. With the annexation of Khuzestan, a region rich in oil, and the lucrative Treaty of Baghdad granting Iraq 75 percent of Iran's oil revenue, Saddam Hussein would be in a far stronger financial position. The need to seize Kuwait's oil fields would be significantly diminished, if not entirely eliminated. Therefore, Saddam Hussein would probably not go to war with Kuwait due to the acquirement of Khuzestan. This means no Gulf War in 1990, preventing the massive international coalition response and the imposition of crippling sanctions on Iraq that followed.
A Stronger Iraq: Avoiding the 2003 Invasion
The absence of the 1990 Gulf War would have cascading effects, preventing the subsequent weakening of Iraq that ultimately led to the 2003 invasion. Without years of sanctions, no-fly zones, and military interventions, Iraq would remain a significantly more powerful and robust nation. Its military capabilities would not be degraded, and its economy would be thriving due to the sustained influx of Iranian oil revenues and the direct control over Khuzestan's resources. Consequently, the US would not invade Iraq in 2003 due to Iraq being more powerful and hard to defeat. The strategic rationale for intervention would be absent, as a powerful, economically stable Iraq, having achieved its regional ambitions, might be perceived as a less immediate threat, or at least one too formidable to engage without overwhelming justification. This decisive outcome in the Iran-Iraq War would thus spare Iraq from two devastating conflicts, allowing it to consolidate its power and potentially emerge as a dominant regional force.
Regional Power Dynamics and Global Implications
In this alternate reality, the balance of power in the Middle East would be fundamentally reshaped by Iraq's decisive victory in the Iran-Iraq War. Iraq, bolstered by its territorial gains and economic prosperity, would emerge as the undisputed regional hegemon. The long-term vision for Iraq would be a prosperous country in 2024, a stark contrast to its historical trajectory. Iran, stripped of its key oil province and forced into economic subservience, would likely become a failed state, perhaps resembling Ethiopia in its economic and political instability. The radical Islamist ideology that defined the Islamic Republic would be discredited by its catastrophic defeat, leading to a weakened and fragmented nation.
Saddam Hussein's international standing would also be significantly elevated. He was already seen as a key figure for blocking the Islamic Revolution and important to maintain stability in the region. A decisive victory would solidify this perception, making him an indispensable, albeit authoritarian, partner for Western powers concerned about regional stability. However, the extent of Iraq's dominance would likely face checks. Western powers and the USSR would never allow that much unchecked power for various reasons, potentially seeking to maintain a delicate balance of power, even if it meant tacitly supporting a strong Iraq. Meanwhile, a weakened Iran, no longer preoccupied with its revolutionary ambitions in the Gulf, might turn its focus eastward, potentially even helping Afghanistan against the USSR, creating a fascinating shift in Cold War dynamics in Central Asia.
Economic Repercussions and Oil Markets
The economic ramifications of a decisive Iraqi victory in the Iran-Iraq War would be profound, particularly concerning global oil markets. The core of this economic shift lies in the "Treaty of Baghdad," which would stipulate that 75 percent of Iran's oil revenue must be given to Iraq. This clause, combined with Iraq's direct control over the oil-rich Khuzestan province, would dramatically increase Iraq's oil output and, more importantly, its control over a significant portion of global oil supplies. Imagine the wealth flowing into Baghdad from both its own expanded production and the massive tribute from Iran.
Iraq would experience an unprecedented economic boom, transforming it into a truly prosperous country by 2024, a vision far removed from its actual history. This immense financial power would allow Saddam's regime to invest heavily in infrastructure, military modernization, and social programs, consolidating its internal stability and projecting its influence outwards. For global oil markets, this would mean a single, powerful entity controlling a much larger share of production, potentially leading to greater price stability if Iraq chose to act as a responsible supplier, or conversely, unprecedented leverage if it decided to weaponize its oil dominance. The world's energy security would be heavily dependent on Baghdad's policies, making the economic consequences of this alternative Iran-Iraq War outcome truly global in scope.
Long-Term Stability vs. Unforeseen Consequences
While a decisive Iraqi victory in the Iran-Iraq War might seem to usher in an era of regional stability, particularly by preventing subsequent conflicts like the Gulf War and the 2003 invasion, the reality of such a profound geopolitical shift is rarely simple. Even in a scenario where Iraq is a prosperous country in 2024, and Iran is a failed state, the road ahead is not without landmines. The very act of annexing Khuzestan, while internationally recognized in this hypothetical, could still sow seeds of long-term resentment within the Iranian populace, regardless of their government's form. A new Iranian republic, even if less ideologically driven, would still grapple with the humiliation of defeat and territorial loss, potentially fostering irredentist sentiments for generations.
Furthermore, the immense power concentrated in Baghdad under Saddam Hussein, while preventing external threats, might exacerbate internal challenges. While the "Data Kalimat" mentions a scenario where Iran installs a puppet government in Iraq leading to rebellion, in our Iraqi victory scenario, Saddam's unchallenged authority could lead to different forms of internal pressures. The balance of power in the region, even if tilted heavily in Iraq's favor, might not be truly stable. Other regional players, and indeed the major global powers, would constantly be maneuvering to contain or influence a hyper-powerful Iraq, ensuring that the geopolitical chessboard remains complex and unpredictable, despite the clear outcome of the Iran-Iraq War.
Reflecting on the "What If": Lessons from History
Exploring the hypothetical scenario of a decisive Iraqi victory in the Iran-Iraq War offers a compelling glimpse into a dramatically different Middle East. It highlights how a single, pivotal historical event, if altered, could prevent decades of subsequent conflict and reshape the fates of nations. In this alternate timeline, we see a powerful, prosperous Iraq, a collapsed and fragmented Iran, and the absence of two major Gulf Wars that defined our recent history. The very notion of "what if Iraq had defeated Iran and conquered territory like Khuzestan" unlocks a cascade of consequences, from altered oil markets to a completely different geopolitical alignment of powers.
However, this thought experiment also underscores the inherent complexities of history. Even a clear victory, as imagined for Iraq, doesn't guarantee perpetual peace or an entirely benign outcome. The "Iran and Iraq both lost in OTL" sentiment reminds us that wars, regardless of declared victors, often inflict deep and lasting scars. This exercise in "possible history" is not meant to offend anyone or to make anyone mad, but rather to stimulate critical thinking about cause and effect in international relations. It prompts us to consider the fragility of existing orders and the profound impact of strategic decisions. What are your thoughts on this alternate timeline? Share your insights in the comments below, and don't forget to explore our other historical "what if" scenarios!
Insurgency in Iraq Widens Rivals’ Rift - The New York Times
In U.S.-Led Iraq War, Iran Was the Big Winner - The New York Times
Iran Dominates in Iraq After U.S. ‘Handed the Country Over’ - The New
