Decoding Iran's Ambitions: What Does Iran Want From Israel?
**Table of Contents** * [The Historical Underpinnings of Enmity](#the-historical-underpinnings-of-enmity) * [Ideological Foundations and Rhetoric](#ideological-foundations-and-rhetoric) * [The Nuclear Shadow: A Core Contention](#the-nuclear-shadow-a-core-contention) * [Iran's Strategic Calculus: Beyond Direct Confrontation](#irans-strategic-calculus-beyond-direct-confrontation) * [The Proxy Network: A Lever of Influence](#the-proxy-network-a-lever-of-influence) * [Deterrence and Regional Hegemony](#deterrence-and-regional-hegemony) * [Responding to Israeli Aggression: A Balancing Act](#responding-to-israeli-aggression-a-balancing-act) * [The Gaza War's Ripple Effect: A Catalyst for Escalation](#the-gaza-wars-ripple-effect-a-catalyst-for-escalation) * [The US Factor: A Complex Web of Influence](#the-us-factor-a-complex-web-of-influence) * [Iran's Nuclear Program: A Persistent Point of Conflict](#irans-nuclear-program-a-persistent-point-of-conflict) * [The Future Trajectory: What Lies Ahead?](#the-future-trajectory-what-lies-ahead) * [Conclusion](#conclusion)
## The Historical Underpinnings of Enmity The animosity between Iran and Israel is not a recent phenomenon, but rather deeply rooted in historical shifts and ideological clashes that intensified significantly after the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. Prior to the revolution, Iran under the Shah maintained diplomatic relations with Israel, viewing it as a strategic partner against Arab nationalism. However, the revolutionary government, led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, fundamentally reoriented Iran's foreign policy, casting Israel as an illegitimate entity and a primary adversary, often referred to as the "Zionist regime." This ideological shift became a foundational element of Iran's foreign policy, shaping its objectives and actions in the region. ### Ideological Foundations and Rhetoric At its core, Iran's revolutionary ideology views Israel as an outpost of Western imperialism and an oppressor of Palestinians, a narrative that resonates deeply within the Islamic Republic's anti-imperialist and pro-Palestinian stance. This is not merely rhetorical; it underpins concrete policy decisions. For instance, in October 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, then Iran’s new conservative president, was famously quoted as saying that Israel should be “wiped off the map.” While interpretations of this statement vary – some arguing it referred to the regime, not the people or the land – the sentiment undeniably reflects a deeply ingrained desire to see the current Israeli state dismantled or fundamentally altered. The verbal attacks against Israel have indeed not abated over the years, maintaining a consistent pressure point. This ideological commitment translates into a persistent effort to undermine Israel's security and legitimacy, not necessarily through direct invasion, but through various means that challenge its existence and influence. Iran's leaders believe that Israel is a threat to regional stability and Islamic values, thus justifying their actions as defensive or liberatory. ### The Nuclear Shadow: A Core Contention Perhaps the most critical and dangerous aspect of Iran's relationship with Israel revolves around its nuclear program. Israel believes Iran is a threat to its security despite Iran’s insistence that it doesn’t want nuclear weapons. This fundamental distrust forms the bedrock of Israel's aggressive stance towards Iran's nuclear ambitions. From Israel's perspective, a nuclear-armed Iran represents an existential threat, given the historical rhetoric and the perceived irrationality of the Iranian regime. Israel's position on this is that it has no choice; it believes that in the last few months, Iran was accelerating towards building a nuclear weapon, and that talks aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program have been insufficient or have failed. This belief fuels Israel's proactive measures, including covert operations and overt strikes, to impede Iran's progress. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently maintained that preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is the main goal of Israel’s military offensive. This objective is paramount for Israel's security doctrine, influencing its strategic decisions and military actions against Iranian targets. ## Iran's Strategic Calculus: Beyond Direct Confrontation While Iran's rhetoric might suggest a desire for direct confrontation, its actions often demonstrate a more nuanced and pragmatic approach. Iran generally doesn’t want a direct war with Israel and the US. Instead, its strategy appears to be one of calculated deterrence, regional influence, and asymmetric warfare, designed to achieve its objectives without triggering a full-scale conflict that it knows it cannot win against a technologically superior adversary backed by the United States. ### The Proxy Network: A Lever of Influence A key component of Iran's strategy is its extensive network of proxy groups across the Middle East. Groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, various Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and more recently, the Houthis in Yemen, serve as Iran's "arms" in the region. These proxies allow Iran to project power, exert influence, and directly threaten Israel without directly engaging its own forces. This strategy minimizes the risk of direct retaliation against Iranian soil while maximizing pressure on Israel. The drones and ballistic missiles that Iran fired at Israel last October, for instance, highlight Iran's capacity to use its proxies or even its own conventional capabilities to respond to perceived aggressions, albeit in a measured way. These actions are often designed to send a message, demonstrate capability, and deter further Israeli actions, rather than to initiate an all-out war. The goal is to maintain a credible threat that keeps Israel on edge and forces it to expend resources defending its borders. ### Deterrence and Regional Hegemony Beyond confronting Israel, Iran's broader strategic goal is to establish itself as the dominant regional power. This ambition is often framed in terms of resistance against Western influence and support for Islamic movements. By challenging Israel, Iran aims to bolster its credentials as the leader of the "Axis of Resistance," attracting support from various anti-Western and anti-Israeli factions across the Muslim world. This pursuit of regional hegemony also involves deterring potential attacks against its own territory or assets. Iran’s missile and drone attack against Israel, as noted by Peter Bergen, was a result of both the Iranian regime’s nature and of policy reversals and blunders by the US. This suggests that Iran's actions are often reactive, aimed at restoring deterrence after perceived provocations or demonstrating its capacity to retaliate. The recent three days of Israeli attacks, which killed more than 240 Iranians, including several members of its military leadership, prompted Iran to hit back in a measured way, showcasing its resolve and capability without escalating to a full-blown war. This response indicates a desire to re-establish a balance of deterrence, signaling that attacks on its personnel or territory will not go unanswered. ## Responding to Israeli Aggression: A Balancing Act Iran's responses to Israeli military actions are often a delicate balancing act between demonstrating strength and avoiding catastrophic escalation. The April 1 attack on the consulate building in Damascus, for which Iran blames Israel, was explicitly stated by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as tantamount to an attack on Iranian territory. This framing is crucial because it justifies Iran's subsequent retaliatory actions as a defense of its sovereignty, rather than an unprovoked act of aggression. When Israel conducts strikes against Iranian targets in Syria or elsewhere, often eliminating Iran’s military brass, Iran faces immense domestic and regional pressure to respond. However, as Wendy Sherman, who led the U.S. team that negotiated the nuclear deal, noted, Israel’s elimination of Iran’s military brass may be a setback, “but it is not a strategy for ending Iran’s program.” This highlights Iran's resilience and its long-term commitment to its strategic goals despite tactical losses. Iran's response is often calibrated to inflict some damage or demonstrate capability without providing Israel with a pretext for a much larger, more devastating counter-response. This is why, for example, their missile and drone attacks might be designed to bypass defenses or target specific military installations, rather than indiscriminately hitting civilian areas, though the risk of miscalculation is always present. The overarching goal is to deter future Israeli actions by demonstrating that the cost of such actions will be significant, while simultaneously avoiding a direct, all-out war with Israel and, by extension, the United States. If Iran does retaliate with greater force, any American president, including Trump, would almost certainly help Israel shoot down the incoming missiles, drones, or planes, a reality Iran is keenly aware of. This understanding shapes Iran's risk assessment and its choice of response. ## The Gaza War's Ripple Effect: A Catalyst for Escalation The ongoing war in Gaza, which has been underway since October, serves as a significant backdrop to the recent escalation between Israel and Iran. This conflict has intensified regional tensions and provided a new context for Iran's anti-Israel stance. While Iran has long supported Hamas, the scale and intensity of the Gaza war have amplified calls for solidarity within the "Axis of Resistance." For Iran, the Gaza conflict presents both an opportunity and a challenge. It allows Iran to rally support for the Palestinian cause, reinforce its image as a champion of the oppressed, and further destabilize Israel's security environment. However, it also carries the risk of drawing Iran into a direct conflict, which it seeks to avoid. The actions of Iran-backed groups, such as the Houthis in the Red Sea or Hezbollah on Israel's northern border, are direct manifestations of this ripple effect, aimed at pressuring Israel and its allies in response to the Gaza war. Interestingly, public opinion within Israel, as noted by Rabinovitch, shows that “solid majorities have shown that Israelis want the war in Gaza to end,” and that public opinion in the wake of October 7 has generally supported negotiations over hostages rather than continued conflict. This internal Israeli sentiment might, in a twisted way, align with Iran's desire to avoid a wider war, though for entirely different reasons. Iran aims to capitalize on Israel's internal and external pressures stemming from Gaza to advance its own regional agenda, rather than seeking a full-scale regional conflagration. ## The US Factor: A Complex Web of Influence The United States plays an undeniable and often decisive role in the Iran-Israel dynamic. As Israel's primary strategic ally, the US provides substantial military, economic, and diplomatic support, effectively guaranteeing Israel's qualitative military edge in the region. This American backing profoundly influences what Iran wants from Israel and how it attempts to achieve those desires. From Iran's perspective, the US is not a neutral party but an active participant in the regional power struggle, often seen as enabling Israeli aggression and undermining Iran's legitimate interests. Peter Bergen's observation that Iran’s missile and drone attack against Israel was a result of both the Iranian regime’s nature and of policy reversals and blunders by the US underscores this point. US policies, such as withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) or sanctions, are perceived by Tehran as attempts to isolate and weaken the regime, pushing it towards more aggressive postures. Iran's strategic objective regarding the US is complex: it seeks to reduce American influence in the Middle East, viewing it as an obstacle to its own regional aspirations. By challenging Israel, Iran indirectly challenges the US, hoping to demonstrate the limits of American power and its allies' vulnerabilities. However, Iran also understands that a direct military confrontation with the US would be devastating. Therefore, its actions are often designed to test American resolve, create dilemmas for US policymakers, and push for a reduction in US military presence, rather than to provoke a full-scale war. The consistent American commitment to Israel's defense, exemplified by the readiness of any US president to help shoot down incoming threats, acts as a significant deterrent against more aggressive Iranian actions. ## Iran's Nuclear Program: A Persistent Point of Conflict The issue of Iran's nuclear program remains the most critical flashpoint between the two nations, and indeed, a core element of what Iran wants from Israel – or rather, what it wants *despite* Israel. Iran insists it doesn’t want nuclear weapons, claiming its program is for peaceful energy and medical purposes. However, Israel and many Western nations remain deeply skeptical, viewing Iran's activities as a clandestine effort to develop a nuclear arsenal. Israel is familiar with these customs and knows not to trust Iran’s leaders and their claims to want only “peaceful” nuclear power. This deep-seated distrust stems from Iran's past covert activities and its consistent defiance of international inspections and agreements. Israeli leaders likely feel that if negotiations were to begin again, they would provide cover for Iran’s clandestine nuclear arms program, as Ryan noted in his daily article. This perception explains Israel's preference for direct action over diplomatic solutions when it comes to preventing Iran from achieving nuclear capability. What Iran wants from this nuclear program, in the face of Israeli opposition, is multifaceted. It seeks: 1. **Deterrence:** A nuclear capability, even if undeclared, would provide Iran with the ultimate deterrent against external aggression, particularly from Israel or the US. It would significantly alter the regional power balance in Iran's favor. 2. **Prestige:** Possessing nuclear technology, whether for peaceful or military purposes, confers significant national prestige and enhances Iran's standing on the global stage, especially as a developing nation defying Western pressure. 3. **Bargaining Chip:** The nuclear program serves as a powerful bargaining chip in negotiations with international powers, allowing Iran to extract concessions or relief from sanctions. Israel, at a minimum, wants to do enough damage to Iran’s nuclear program that Tehran cannot reconstitute it for the foreseeable future or race to get a weapon. This objective drives Israel's intelligence operations, cyberattacks, and targeted assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, all aimed at slowing or stopping the program. The ongoing conflict, therefore, is deeply intertwined with this nuclear arms race, with each side attempting to gain an advantage or prevent the other from achieving its ultimate goal. ## The Future Trajectory: What Lies Ahead? As the attacks by Iran and Israel continue, often into consecutive days, the future trajectory of their relationship remains highly uncertain and fraught with peril. The core desires of Iran – regional influence, deterrence against external threats, and the advancement of its nuclear program – will continue to shape its actions towards Israel. Similarly, Israel's paramount goal of preventing a nuclear Iran and ensuring its own security will dictate its responses. The dynamics are complex. The Iranian regime is often perceived as very weak by Israel, as stated by Netanyahu, suggesting that regime change could be the result of Israel’s actions. While Israel may not explicitly seek regime change, it certainly views the current Iranian leadership as inherently hostile and a threat. Any actions that weaken the regime, whether intended or not, would likely be seen as beneficial by Israel. The involvement of the US remains a critical variable. While the US will always support Israel's defense, the extent to which it will deploy troops or engage directly in a wider conflict is a constant point of speculation and concern. Iran's careful calibration of its responses indicates an awareness of these red lines. Ultimately, Iran wants to solidify its position as a dominant regional power, capable of defending its interests and projecting its influence, without engaging in a direct, existential war with Israel or the US. It seeks to erode Israel's security, challenge its legitimacy, and ultimately, reshape the Middle East in a way that aligns with its revolutionary ideals. The nuclear program is a means to this end, providing both leverage and deterrence. The path forward is likely to involve continued proxy conflicts, cyber warfare, and a dangerous game of brinkmanship, with the ever-present risk of miscalculation leading to a wider, more devastating confrontation. ## Conclusion Understanding what Iran wants from Israel is crucial for deciphering the complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics. It is not simply about eliminating Israel, as some of the more inflammatory rhetoric might suggest, but about a multifaceted strategy aimed at achieving regional dominance, deterring perceived threats, and securing its revolutionary ideals. This involves leveraging proxy forces, advancing its nuclear program, and responding to perceived aggressions in a calibrated manner, all while carefully avoiding a direct, full-scale war with Israel and its powerful ally, the United States. The historical animosity, ideological clashes, and the persistent shadow of nuclear ambitions ensure that the relationship between Iran and Israel will remain a flashpoint for the foreseeable future. As events unfold, particularly against the backdrop of conflicts like the war in Gaza, the world watches anxiously, hoping that a delicate balance of deterrence can prevent the region from spiraling into an even larger catastrophe. What are your thoughts on Iran's true motivations? Do you believe a peaceful resolution is possible, or are these two nations destined for perpetual conflict? Share your insights in the comments below, and explore other articles on our site for more in-depth analysis of global affairs.
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